America on the threshold of recession, 1.75 lakh people will be unemployed every month, know what will be the effect on India? – Recession in US top economy will soon start losing 175000 jobs a month Bank of America warns tutc

The threat of recession is looming over the world and America is most visible in its JD. Inflation at a 40-year high, a continuous increase in interest rates and the unemployment rate coming down to a 53-year low is pointing towards this.

In September, 2.63 lakh people got jobs, the lowest level since 1969. In such a situation, now a very frightening possibility has been expressed in the report of Bank of America. According to this, America may fall into recession in the first half of next year i.e. January-June. If this happens then 1.75 lakh people can become unemployed every month in the country.

India will be affected like this

Whether there is a stir in the stock market in America or any other important decision. Its effect is seen on the whole world. American turmoil affects India in a big way. In such a situation, if jobs are lost on such a large scale in America in the midst of recession, then such Indian professionals who are leaving the country and working there may also be affected by it. It is worth noting that millions of Indians are working in America. This will become a cause of trouble not only for India but also for other countries of the world.

The situation will worsen due to increase in interest rates
Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America, has estimated the unemployment rate in the US to be 5 to 5.5 percent in the next one year. This estimate looks more dangerous because the Fed has also estimated the unemployment rate next year at 4.4 percent. The condition of inflation in America is visible like that of other developed countries of the world.

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is continuously increasing interest rates to contain inflation that has reached a four-decade high in the US. This increase in interest rates affects not only America, but also the world. Investors’ decisions are changed overnight by a decision by the Fed Reserve. There is turmoil in the stock markets around the world. Circumstances that prove to be deteriorating.

Fears of severe unemployment crisis
Such decisions taken in America have an impact not only on the economy of America, but also on the global economy. At present, if we talk about the US economy, Bank of America says that the effect of increase in interest rates will be visible from the beginning of 2023. The situation can be so dire that every month about two and a half lakh people can become unemployed. According to Bank of America, the aggressive manner in which the Fed Reserve is increasing interest rates may soon reduce the demand for all goods.

First of all there will be layoffs in this sector!
Bank of America’s report said that job growth in the current quarter, ie October-December, could be reduced to half. After this, in the first quarter of 2023 i.e. January-March, the results of the second campaign, including raising the interest rates of the Fed Reserve, issued to contain inflation, will start coming. Due to this effect, in the beginning of 2023, there may be a crisis on the jobs of the agricultural sector. Due to this, a total of 1.25 lakh people can become unemployed in the first quarter. Not only this, this trend is also expected to continue for the whole year in 2023 i.e. about 21 lakh people may lose their jobs in 2023.

Controlling inflation is the first priority
If America has the highest inflation in 40 years, then to control it, the Fed has also raised interest rates the fastest in the last four decades. According to the Fed Reserve, at present their target is to control inflation, due to its effect, it is compulsion to take the risk of the economy going into recession.

According to Michael Gapon, Head of US Economics at Bank of America, the labor market may remain weak for 6 months. But this weakness will not be like the unemployment rate increased in 2020 during 2008 or more recently during Corona. If the unemployment rate is expected to reach 5.5 percent now, then comparing it with April 2020 will reduce the shadow of fear because two and a half years ago in April 2020, the unemployment rate in America reached 15 percent.

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