Santosh Meena,Swastika Investmart
In the week ended February 18, the market closed with a slight decline after heavy volatility. Market volatility is expected to continue for the next week amid geopolitical uncertainties. There is no clear picture yet about the ongoing tension between Russia-Ukraine. In such a situation, the market is giving its reaction to the news coming every moment related to this issue. In such a situation, in the coming week also, geopolitical issues will dominate the market.
The only good thing for the Indian market is that crude oil prices have not come to a boil despite rising geopolitical tensions. The reason for this is that there may be a nuclear deal with Iran soon, due to which the supply of crude oil from Iran can be seen increasing in the future.
Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors are in a sell mode while domestic institutional investors are supporting the market. The derivatives data is also providing some support to the market as FIIIs are buying in index futures and stock futures. This has resulted in a 60 per cent jump in the long exposure of FIIs to the index futures. Put call ratio is seen at 1.1 level which is neutral for the market.
There are indications from the statement of US Fed officials, there will not be a sudden increase in rates by a large amount
If we look at the open interest data, it does not give any clear indication as to what is the position of FIIs in index options.
Technically, Nifty has touched the 200-DMA level and has also taken support near it. Then after this smart pullback has been seen in it. However, there is a resistance for it at 17400-17600. This zone is also a cluster of 20, 50 and 100-DMA for Nifty.
If Nifty crosses the supply zone of 17400-17600, then we can see the level of 18000-18300. Immediate support for Nifty is at 17100. If Nifty slips below it, then 16850-16800 level can be seen in it.
Bank Nifty also looks quite volatile. Resistance is visible at 38000-38500 level. On the downside, 37250, which is also its 50-DMA, is an immediate support level. After that there is next support for it at 36500 which is also its 200-DMA.